What is the future of hard drives? How long to download a Yottabyte?

[Calavera]

If you had an internet connection speed of 1 billion Megabits, aka 1 million gigabits or 1 thousand terabits which would have a download speed of 125 Terabytes per second it would take about 254 years to download a single Yottabyte. One a 100 megabit connection it would take 2,535,047,025 years!

The connection speed you would need to download 1 Yottabyte in a reasonable amount of time would be 1 Billion Terabits. Which would be a download speed of 125 MILLION TERABYTES PER SECOND! With that connection you could download a Yottabyte in around 2 hours and 15 minutes.

I knew a Yottabyte was a huge amount but I guess I didn't realize what an insanely huge amount it is until I looked at in a download time calculator.
Here are the other "bytes" above Terabyte just for fun/reference.

For a Petabyte which is the next one up from Terabyte you would ONLY need a 1,000 gigabit connection to download it in 2 hours 15 minutes. With a 100 megabit connection it would take about 2 and a half years.

An Exabyte would require 1,000 Terabits for 2hr 15min. At 100 megabits it would take 2,535 years.

Zettabyte would need 1 Million Terabits to download in 2hr 15min. At 100 megabits it would download in 2,535,047

How long will it be before we see a drive capable of storing 1 petabyte? It seems crazy but not all that long ago a Terabyte seemed crazy and being able to download a Terabyte even crazier! Had I made a thread like this 25 years ago or so I'd have been saying.

At 28.8kbps it would take 8.8 years to download 1TB. If you are lucky enough to get the full 56K connection speed it would almost cut the time in half taking 4.5 years. To go even further if you are really lucky and have a 128kbps ISDN then you are looking a just under 2 years at 1.98 years.

So what amount of storage on a single drive do you think we will see from now to 2050. I'm talking consumer drives not Supercomputers. Unless there is some new breakthrough in storage methods I personally don't think we'll see Exa,Zetta or Yottabyte drives. I could see a Petabyte drive becoming a reality. They still have quite a ways to go to reach 1,000 Terabytes though. As of posting this in February 2023 it looks like the largest HDD you can get is 22TB for $500. There are apparently 16GB SSDs but they are uncommon and very expensive. The largest SSD a normal consumer is likely to get is 8TB which will cost you around $550-$600. An 8GB M.2 drive can also be had but will cost you quite a bit more coming in at around $1,100.

So what are you're predictions for future hard drive sizes and technology. When we get to a Petabyte will it be on a standard HDD? Or will HDDs stop being made entirely at some point and everything will be SSD?

[pixel]

If you want to fall down a rabbit hole, /r/datahoarder is a great resource for obscene hard drive needs. I've read on there that ~40TB drives could be commercially available soon (for a steep price north of $4,000 USD).

Is it economical now to get to a petabyte? The prevailing logic on /r/datahoarder and /r/buildapcsales is that $10-15/GB is the sweet spot for buying mechanical hard drives. Logically, you could get yourself a petabyte of space for $10K+ USD at the moment, right? The lovable doofuses at Linus Tech Tips can show how unfeasible that is.

When will a petabyte drive become a reality? That's always hard to say. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but 4 TB drives seemed like the stratosphere back in 2013. Since then, we've gotten up to 18TB and 20TB drives that cost ~$400 USD. By that projection, we're a ways off from even getting to 100TB. That is, unless there's some big breakthroughs in storage technology.

My guess is that physical drives will reach a plateau due to two factors: Mechanics or economics. Basically, manufacturers might reach a point where the can't or won't create larger capacities for physical drives. Maybe they can't more platters or increase platter density in the near future?

What will be more likely is manufacturers won't make higher-capacity physical drives because solid-state drives will eclipse the old tech. I bet solid-state drive capacity will jump by leaps and bounds due to new technology. Look at NVME technology: As capacity grows, they will become much preferred to a rack of spinning hard drives.

But honestly, the main driving factor in hard drive tech and pricing is the server market. It's economical now to have racks and racks of 3.5" drives for raw data storage. You can see clearly what hardware is being used for corporate and enterprise storage by visiting a place like Server Part Deals. Who knows when the 3.5" drive form factor is retired, but it will be some day when the better/cheaper option is available for server farms.

[pixel]

Toshiba to release 26TB HDDs this year, 30TB to come later

Toshiba is also looking at releasing a 40TB drive in five years. Buy 25 of those and baby, you got yourself a petabyte!

[Hawq]

Beware the BabyYodabyte, any froggies stored on it will be lost

[Roofus]

If you want to fall down a rabbit hole, /r/datahoarder is a great resource for obscene hard drive needs. I've read on there that ~40TB drives could be commercially available soon (for a steep price north of $4,000 USD).

Is it economical now to get to a petabyte? The prevailing logic on /r/datahoarder and /r/buildapcsales is that $10-15/GB is the sweet spot for buying mechanical hard drives. Logically, you could get yourself a petabyte of space for $10K+ USD at the moment, right? The lovable doofuses at Linus Tech Tips can show how unfeasible that is.

When will a petabyte drive become a reality? That's always hard to say. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but 4 TB drives seemed like the stratosphere back in 2013. Since then, we've gotten up to 18TB and 20TB drives that cost ~$400 USD. By that projection, we're a ways off from even getting to 100TB. That is, unless there's some big breakthroughs in storage technology.

My guess is that physical drives will reach a plateau due to two factors: Mechanics or economics. Basically, manufacturers might reach a point where the can't or won't create larger capacities for physical drives. Maybe they can't more platters or increase platter density in the near future?

What will be more likely is manufacturers won't make higher-capacity physical drives because solid-state drives will eclipse the old tech. I bet solid-state drive capacity will jump by leaps and bounds due to new technology. Look at NVME technology: As capacity grows, they will become much preferred to a rack of spinning hard drives.

But honestly, the main driving factor in hard drive tech and pricing is the server market. It's economical now to have racks and racks of 3.5" drives for raw data storage. You can see clearly what hardware is being used for corporate and enterprise storage by visiting a place like Server Part Deals. Who knows when the 3.5" drive form factor is retired, but it will be some day when the better/cheaper option is available for server farms.

r/datahoarder is crazy. I thought my 22 terabyte Emby library was impressive. It is very much not.

[pixel]

[...]

r/datahoarder is crazy. I thought my 22 terabyte Emby library was impressive. It is very much not.

Today, I saw a post on the front page with someone asking "feedback of noise" for a 24-bay, rack-mounted DAS. My 20TB Plex library is a Kia compared to the 200TB Mercedes setups that people casually talk about on there.